WILL THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN PUT AN END TO THE TALENT WARS?
by Bruce Tulgan
  There will be no relief from the talent wars any time soon, even if unemployment increases substantially. In a corporate environment that is even leaner and meaner, employers will try to achieve still greater increases in productivity. So every employer’s goal will be to cut the low performers and keep the high performers. That means there will be more, not less, competition for the best talent.

If indeed there is a sustained economic downturn, we will most certainly see casualties--individual as well as corporate. But there have been casualties every step of the way. Even during the most exuberant days of the economic boom, with unemployment at record lows, downsizing reached record highs.

Employers have been staffing up like crazy in areas where there are market opportunities, but they have been staffing down just as fast in areas where market opportunities have disappeared. The reality of the new economy is that there is tons of work to be done, but no real job security for anybody. And it is that reality that gave birth to the free agent mindset and, thus, the talent wars.

And that’s the beauty of the increasingly efficient free market for talent: Nobody’s going to sit around wallowing in an economic downturn. Individuals are going to find ways to fend for themselves--learn new skills, find new jobs, work harder, faster, and better. And organizations are going to be flexible enough to find new efficiencies, get even better at employing people, continue to improve productivity, and reap new profits.

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RainmakerThinking is proud to present edited excerpts from Bruce Tulgan’s new book, Winning the Talent Wars (coming January 22, 2001 from W.W. Norton).

The desperate financial bidding for talent has been the most vivid in professional services firms, as well as in the high-tech sector. And it has, of late, been creeping into pay schemes from the management level all the way down the line in organizations unwilling to let go of the old-fashioned career path. Of course, the executives at these firms are attempting to keep the best people on the old-fashioned "up or out" path until those executives decide whether or not they want each person to stay or go. In pursuing this strategy, however, these firms have (purportedly) locked themselves into very expensive long-term deals.

Having followed this approach, imagine the feelings of business leaders whenever the markets manifest their wild gyrations. When the market plummets, they might be thinking, "Oh no... We’ve just raised salaries and benefits dramatically. Now we are going to be so financially over-committed we won’t know what to do." But of course they are not. Instead they are thinking, "Hmmm... We may have to get rid of a bunch of employees and draw back those pay raises." That’s because bidding up pay in the context of long-term employment relationships is at best a pretend game and at worst a foolish business error. Staffing levels and pay must be as flexible as the market is fast.  


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Sixty-Fourth Edition, January 4, 2001
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