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Managing in an Era of Uncertainty
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Many people are worried about the long-term impact of September 11 on the
economy. I don’t think that concern is insensitive. Our economy is the
collective lifeblood of our individual efforts to learn, grow, contribute,
earn our livings, and provide for our families. How will our way of life be
affected? Nobody knows. And that is the long-term impact: We will be
operating in an environment of profound uncertainty for the foreseeable
future.
The cruel tragedy reminds us all that we live in an unpredictable world and
we are frighteningly vulnerable. At the same time, the generous outpouring
of tears, sweat, blood, camaraderie and money proves that, at our best, we
are strong, brave, resilient, hard working, innovative, and loving.
We all share the mission of rebuilding, seeking justice and preventing
future attacks. To those who are directly engaged in that sacred work we
owe our unyielding support and our deepest gratitude. As our leaders keep
telling us, those not directly engaged must go back to our lives and we must
get back to our own work.
In the last several years, I've written a lot about the free-agent mindset
that has swept across the workforce. In this time for togetherness, where
does the free agent stand? Every one of us must rely, now more than ever, on
our inner strength as individuals. We should be proud of our self-reliance
and our revitalized spirit of community. When we come together voluntarily
with other good people in pursuit of common goals, we build peace and
prosperity. That is the American way.
But how can we plan in the midst of such uncertainty? And how can we build
if we cannot make plans? Simply, we must. For help, we can borrow from the
cutting edge of strategic planning.
Some time ago, most strategic planners realized that even the best of plans can be rendered obsolete in moments by an unforeseen contingency. So they stopped making traditional plans with long-term schedules of concrete goals and adopted a more flexible ‘just-in-time’ approach:
- Evaluate which contingencies seem most likely at any given time based on the best current information.
- Set long-term goals for guidance, but focus detailed planning efforts on short-term goals.
- Brainstorm multiple contingencies and prepare skeleton plans for every conceivable scenario.
- Revise and adjust on an ongoing basis.
- When unforeseen contingencies occur, reevaluate everything.
Uncertainty is the new reality. With uncertainty comes a short-term focus,
of necessity. We can still achieve great things… we'll just have to do it
one day at a time.
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We stand united.
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